National Underwriter - March 12, 2012

Resilient Cities: Urban Sustainability for the 21st Century

Urbanized areas have for the past 40 years been skating on the thin ice of a decaying national infrastructure, diminished emergency-response systems and inadequate social-support constructs, increasing the physical and economic vulnerability of residents

BY MATTHEW F. POWER

IN THE WAKE OF tragedies such as Hurricanes Katrina, Ike, Wilma and Irene, as well as the devastation wrought by the Japanese earthquake and unprecedented levels of wind events across the United States, experts have begun to consider the issues of urban resiliency—specifically concentrating on unique characteristics that either reduce or increase regional exposures and the ability to recover following a major event.

Those communities demonstrating strong social capital, diverse economic bases, low levels of inequality and strong political leadership are most likely to emerge quickly from the effects of a large-scale event. In the case of New Orleans, few resiliency characteristics were evident prior to the disaster. Core industries were in a state of decline; highly concentrated populations of people lived below the poverty line; disparity in such areas as health care, education and home ownership were prevalent; and political vision and leadership proved ineffective.

Also crucial to the study of urban resiliency are regionally specific characteristics that look beyond traditional economic, demographic and political indicators. San Francisco, for example, exhibits relatively strong resiliency characteristics and would appear on the surface to bear little resemblance to areas of the Gulf Region affected by Hurricane Katrina. But a closer examination of post-loss scenarios may suggest otherwise.

A new study released by the San
Francisco Planning and Urban Research
Association (SPUR) was recently
completed through a grant from the U.S.
Geological Survey. Researchers describe
potential scenarios for the Bay Area in
the wake of a magnitude 7.2 earthquake
on the San Andreas Fault along the
Peninsula. The report, “Safe Enough to
Stay,” highlights massive inadequacies
in residential-housing construction in a
city with relatively limited amounts of
emergency-shelter resources.

With more than 60 percent of San
Francisco’s residents classified
as renters, the city would face
unprecedented shelter constraints
given low vacancy rates and lack of
emergency shelter.

earthquake strike in the Bay Area could result in thousands of casualties, hundreds of thousands of displaced households and losses in the hundreds of billions of dollars. Moreover, the report identifies potential challenges to the greater San Francisco economy resulting from a massive exodus of city residents.

Seismology experts predict the likelihood of a major earthquake striking the Bay area over the next 30 years to be as high as 60 percent. More than 58,000 San Francisco residents live in highly vulnerable “soft story” occupancies. Typical soft-story construction in the area consists of hillside structures with first-floor garage or storefront entryways. These buildings are notoriously prone to structural damage

during ground shakes, when first-floor supports sway sideways and collapse under the weight of the upper floors.

With more than 60 percent of San Francisco’s residents classified as renters, the city would face unprecedented shelter constraints given low vacancy rates and lack of emergency shelter. The SPUR report suggests that up to 85,000 households could be displaced as the result of a quake similar in magnitude to those that struck in 1906 and in 1989.

Recommendations from the SPUR study include funding allocations for a massive mandatory-retrofit program that would provide assistance to building owners in upgrading the existing housing stock; the development of an interim-housing strategy for the city; and the creation of a San Francisco interdepartmental shelter-in-place task force. By revising local codes to allow individuals to stay in damaged structures during the rebuilding period, advocates hope to keep the city’s workers from moving away.

The best efforts of urban planning seek to learn from the past in order to prepare for the future, and the SPUR report proposes a creative and innovative path forward for the Bay Area. Putting these lessons to work for the benefit of long-term public safety and economic sustainability is an important step in creating model cities for the 21st century. NU

 Matthew F. Power is Executive Vice President of Lexington Insurance Co. and serves on the boards of directors of the New England Council, the Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce and the University of Massachusetts College of Management Advisory Board. He can be reached at matthew.power@chartisinsurance.com.